Will there be an at least 8.0 magnitude earthquake in California before 2035?

Before 2035activebinarygreater_or_equal

Public page Open on kalshi.com

Yes bid / ask

17¢ / 21¢

spread 4¢

Last trade

22¢

−4¢

No bid / ask

79¢ / 83¢

24h volume

2,748

31.9k lifetime

Open interest

13.8k

top of book 10 × 23

Closes

in 111mo

Dec 31, 2035 · 4:59 AM UTC

YES price

Close per candle with bid/ask band; volume below. Times in UTC.

24h · 1m 7d · 1h 30d · 1h 90d · 1d

Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Top of book, both sides expressed as YES prices.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes

ask18633¢
ask12532¢
ask23231¢
ask31130¢

Resolution rules

Verbatim from the venue. The analyst must quote these, never paraphrase.

If there is at least an earthquake of 8.0 magnitude with an epicenter in California or its territorial waters before Dec 31, 2035, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources

USGS

opens: Jun 21, 2025 · 5:00 PM UTC
closes: Dec 31, 2035 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
expires: Dec 31, 2035 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor: 8
category: Climate and Weather
event: independent outcomes

Recent trades

Most recent first. Price is the YES side.

Time	Yes	No	Size	Taker
2h ago	18¢	82¢

Raw payload

Exactly what the API returned for this market.

Show JSON

market41

can_close_earlytrue

close_time2035-12-31T04:59:00Z

created_time2025-06-21T15:59:50.750225Z

early_close_conditionThis market will close and expire early if the event occurs.