Will the U.S. pay between $10 billion and $99 billion for Greenland during Trump's term?

If the Total Monetary Consideration for a U.S. Acquisition of Greenland is between $10 billion and $99 billion during Trump's term, then the market resolves to Yes.

The Total Monetary Consideration includes cash payments, Treasury securities, direct payments to residents, recurring economic assistance (calculated as 50 times the annual amount if the term exceeds 50 years), infrastructure commitments, assumed debt, and other quantified financial commitments. It excludes the imputed value of military protection, non-quantified promises, the value of citizenship or visa-free travel, and the estimated value of natural resources or strategic positioning. Values are rounded to the nearest $1 billion USD. An "Acquisition of Greenland" requires a treaty transferring sovereignty, Senate ratification, formal White House announcement of territorial status, or a Compact of Free Association with exclusive military access. It does not include expanded base rights, trade agreements, or military occupation without a formal agreement. If no acquisition occurs in the time period, markets resolve to Yes for the "$0 / No Acquisition" bracket and No for all other brackets.

opens

Jan 17 · 3:00 PM UTC

closes

Jan 22, 2029 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early

expires

Jan 22, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC

floor

10

cap

99

category

Politics

event

mutually exclusive outcomes