Verbatim from the venue. The analyst must quote these, never paraphrase.
If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in California's 38th District by 27 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.
For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Democratic Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Democratic Party if the Democratic Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Democratic Party loses.
Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Democratic Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Democratic Party will be summed.
If the Democratic Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Democratic Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Democratic Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Democratic Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).
early_close_conditionThis market will close and expire early if certified election results are published.
event_tickerKXMIDTERMMOV-CA38D
exchange_index0
expected_expiration_time2027-11-03T15:00:00Z
expiration_time2027-11-03T15:00:00Z
expiration_value
floor_strike27
last_price_dollars0.0000
latest_expiration_time2027-11-03T15:00:00Z
liquidity_dollars0.0000
market_typebinary
no_ask_dollars0.7000
no_bid_dollars0.6100
no_sub_titleDemocrats, 27+ pts
notional_value_dollars1.0000
occurrence_datetime2026-11-03T15:00:00Z
open_interest_fp0.00
open_time2026-08-29T14:00:00Z
previous_price_dollars0.0000
previous_yes_ask_dollars0.4000
previous_yes_bid_dollars0.3000
price_level_structuretapered_deci_cent
price_ranges3
[0]3
end0.1000
start0.0000
step0.0010
[1]3
end0.9000
start0.1000
step0.0100
[2]3
end1.0000
start0.9000
step0.0010
result
rules_primaryIf the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in California's 38th District by 27 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
rules_secondaryThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.
For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Democratic Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Democratic Party if the Democratic Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Democratic Party loses.
Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Democratic Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Democratic Party will be summed.
If the Democratic Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Democratic Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Democratic Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Democratic Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).
settlement_timer_seconds1800
statusactive
strike_typegreater_or_equal
tickerKXMIDTERMMOV-CA38D-P27
titleWill the margin of victory for Democrats in the California's 38th District House election be at least 27 percentage points?