Verbatim from the venue. The analyst must quote these, never paraphrase.
If CMS announces the addition of GLP-1 drugs for obesity to Part D before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
GLP-1 drugs are already covered under Part D for type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular risk reduction and obstructive sleep apnea. Those indications are outside this market, which turns on coverage for obesity or chronic weight management.
Only a completed CMS action that provides the coverage counts, such as a final rule, a finalized model design, or guidance to Part D sponsors through the Health Plan Management System. Where the White House or HHS makes the determination, the CMS document adopting it resolves this market, on the date of that document.
The following do NOT resolve this market to YES:
A CMS communication that discusses, studies or reports on such coverage.
A proposed rule or a request for applications, which propose coverage rather than provide it.
An action that considers the change and declines to make it.
The Medicare GLP-1 Bridge, or extending or replacing it, because it sits outside the Part D benefit.
An announcement covering only the Medicaid portion of the BALANCE Model.
Coverage of a single drug, or of a subset of Part D enrollees, is sufficient. The announcement date governs, not the date coverage takes effect.
Will CMS announce the addition of GLP-1 drugs for obesity to Part D before Jan 20, 2029?
Before Jan 20, 2029
KXPARTDGLP1-26AUG-29JAN20
51¢
54¢
54¢
–
3¢
0
636
5,888
in 28mo
active
Policy
28Jan01
early_close_conditionThis market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
event_tickerKXPARTDGLP1-26AUG
exchange_index0
expected_expiration_time2029-01-27T15:00:00Z
expiration_time2028-01-08T15:00:00Z
expiration_value
last_price_dollars0.9500
latest_expiration_time2028-01-08T15:00:00Z
liquidity_dollars0.0000
market_typebinary
no_ask_dollars0.4200
no_bid_dollars0.0700
no_sub_titleBefore Jan 1, 2028
notional_value_dollars1.0000
occurrence_datetime2028-01-01T04:59:00Z
open_interest_fp1396.01
open_time2026-08-24T14:00:00Z
previous_price_dollars0.9500
previous_yes_ask_dollars0.9500
previous_yes_bid_dollars0.5200
price_level_structurelinear_cent
price_ranges1
[0]3
end1.0000
start0.0000
step0.0100
result
rules_primaryIf CMS announces the addition of GLP-1 drugs for obesity to Part D before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
rules_secondaryGLP-1 drugs are already covered under Part D for type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular risk reduction and obstructive sleep apnea. Those indications are outside this market, which turns on coverage for obesity or chronic weight management.
Only a completed CMS action that provides the coverage counts, such as a final rule, a finalized model design, or guidance to Part D sponsors through the Health Plan Management System. Where the White House or HHS makes the determination, the CMS document adopting it resolves this market, on the date of that document.
The following do NOT resolve this market to YES:
A CMS communication that discusses, studies or reports on such coverage.
A proposed rule or a request for applications, which propose coverage rather than provide it.
An action that considers the change and declines to make it.
The Medicare GLP-1 Bridge, or extending or replacing it, because it sits outside the Part D benefit.
An announcement covering only the Medicaid portion of the BALANCE Model.
Coverage of a single drug, or of a subset of Part D enrollees, is sufficient. The announcement date governs, not the date coverage takes effect.
settlement_timer_seconds1800
statusactive
strike_typecustom
tickerKXPARTDGLP1-26AUG-28JAN01
titleWill CMS announce the addition of GLP-1 drugs for obesity to Part D before Jan 1, 2028?