Will the U.S. goods and services deficit for 2027 be above $600 billion?

Above $600 billionactivebinarygreater

Public page Open on kalshi.com

Yes bid / ask

45¢ / 99¢

spread 54¢

Last trade

0¢

–

No bid / ask

1¢ / 55¢

24h volume

0

0 lifetime

Open interest

0

top of book 200 × 200

Closes

in 17mo

Feb 4, 2028 · 1:25 PM UTC

YES price

Close per candle with bid/ask band; volume below. Times in UTC.

24h · 1m 7d · 1h 30d · 1h 90d · 1d

Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Top of book, both sides expressed as YES prices.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes

ask20099¢

spread54¢mid 72¢

bid20045¢

Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

Resolution rules

Verbatim from the venue. The analyst must quote these, never paraphrase.

If the U.S. goods and services deficit for calendar year 2027 is strictly above $600 billion dollars, then the market resolves to Yes.

The Underlying is the nominal goods and services balance on a balance-of-payments basis. It will not use the goods-only deficit, the advance goods report, the December monthly deficit, or inflation-adjusted trade data. Because the agencies generally report the balance as a negative number, the market will use the absolute size of the deficit. For example, an annual trade balance of −$800.1 billion constitutes a trade deficit of $800.1 billion. Resolution will use the first annual estimate published in the release covering December of 2027. Subsequent annual revisions will not be considered.

opens: Aug 26 · 3:30 PM UTC
closes: Feb 4, 2028 · 1:25 PM UTC · may close early
expires: Feb 11, 2028 · 1:30 PM UTC
floor: 600

Recent trades

Most recent first. Price is the YES side.

No trades yet.

Raw payload

Exactly what the API returned for this market.

Show JSON

market42

can_close_earlytrue

close_time2028-02-04T13:25:00Z

created_time2026-08-26T15:20:36.250061Z

early_close_conditionThis market will close and expire early if the economic data is released.

event_ticker

KXTRADEDEFICIT-28FEB04

exchange_index0

expected_expiration_time2028-02-11T13:30:00Z

expiration_time2028-02-11T13:30:00Z

expiration_value

floor_strike600

last_price_dollars0.0000

latest_expiration_time2028-02-11T13:30:00Z

liquidity_dollars0.0000

market_typebinary

no_ask_dollars0.5500

no_bid_dollars0.0100

no_sub_titleAbove $600 billion

notional_value_dollars1.0000

occurrence_datetime2028-02-04T13:30:00Z

open_interest_fp0.00

open_time2026-08-26T15:30:00Z

previous_price_dollars0.0000

previous_yes_ask_dollars0.9900

previous_yes_bid_dollars0.4500

price_level_structurelinear_cent

price_ranges1

[0]3

end1.0000

start0.0000

step0.0100

result

rules_primaryIf the U.S. goods and services deficit for calendar year 2027 is strictly above $600 billion dollars, then the market resolves to Yes.

rules_secondaryThe Underlying is the nominal goods and services balance on a balance-of-payments basis. It will not use the goods-only deficit, the advance goods report, the December monthly deficit, or inflation-adjusted trade data. Because the agencies generally report the balance as a negative number, the market will use the absolute size of the deficit. For example, an annual trade balance of −$800.1 billion constitutes a trade deficit of $800.1 billion. Resolution will use the first annual estimate published in the release covering December of 2027. Subsequent annual revisions will not be considered.