Verbatim from the venue. The analyst must quote these, never paraphrase.
If the U.S. goods and services deficit for calendar year 2030 is strictly above $800 billion dollars, then the market resolves to Yes.
The Underlying is the nominal goods and services balance on a balance-of-payments basis. It will not use the goods-only deficit, the advance goods report, the December monthly deficit, or inflation-adjusted trade data.
Because the agencies generally report the balance as a negative number, the market will use the absolute size of the deficit. For example, an annual trade balance of −$800.1 billion constitutes a trade deficit of $800.1 billion.
Resolution will use the first annual estimate published in the release covering December of 2030. Subsequent annual revisions will not be considered.
opens
Aug 26 · 7:00 PM UTC
closes
Feb 3, 2031 · 1:29 PM UTC · may close early
expires
Feb 10, 2031 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor
800
Recent trades
Most recent first. Price is the YES side.
No trades yet.
Raw payload
Exactly what the API returned for this market.
Show JSON
market42
can_close_earlytrue
close_time2031-02-03T13:29:00Z
created_time2026-08-26T18:06:55.686537Z
early_close_conditionThis market will close and expire early if the economic data is released.
bid
608
9¢
bid1001¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes
event_ticker
KXTRADEDEFICIT-31FEB03
exchange_index0
expected_expiration_time2031-02-10T15:00:00Z
expiration_time2031-02-10T15:00:00Z
expiration_value
floor_strike800
last_price_dollars0.0000
latest_expiration_time2031-02-10T15:00:00Z
liquidity_dollars0.0000
market_typebinary
no_ask_dollars0.5600
no_bid_dollars0.0100
no_sub_titleAbove $800 billion
notional_value_dollars1.0000
occurrence_datetime2031-02-03T15:00:00Z
open_interest_fp0.00
open_time2026-08-26T19:00:00Z
previous_price_dollars0.0000
previous_yes_ask_dollars0.9900
previous_yes_bid_dollars0.0200
price_level_structurelinear_cent
price_ranges1
[0]3
end1.0000
start0.0000
step0.0100
result
rules_primaryIf the U.S. goods and services deficit for calendar year 2030 is strictly above $800 billion dollars, then the market resolves to Yes.
rules_secondaryThe Underlying is the nominal goods and services balance on a balance-of-payments basis. It will not use the goods-only deficit, the advance goods report, the December monthly deficit, or inflation-adjusted trade data.
Because the agencies generally report the balance as a negative number, the market will use the absolute size of the deficit. For example, an annual trade balance of −$800.1 billion constitutes a trade deficit of $800.1 billion.
Resolution will use the first annual estimate published in the release covering December of 2030. Subsequent annual revisions will not be considered.
settlement_timer_seconds1800
statusactive
strike_typegreater
tickerKXTRADEDEFICIT-31FEB03-T800
titleWill the U.S. goods and services deficit for 2030 be above $800 billion?