Verbatim from the venue. The analyst must quote these, never paraphrase.
If ALL of the following occur: Trump's VoteHub approval rating drops below 35% in 2026 AND Democrats win control of the House of Representatives after the midterms AND the U.S. enters a recession between Q4 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive) AND the U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) is at least 5% in any month in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
This is a combination market requiring **ALL** specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out. If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract immediately resolves to No.
Each component is resolved according to its corresponding Kalshi ruleset:
- "Trump's VoteHub approval rating drops below 35%" uses POLLINGAPPROVALINPERIOD
- "Will Democrats win control of the House of Representatives?" uses CONTROL
- "Will the U.S. enter a recession?" uses NBERRECSS
- "Will the U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) be at least 5%?" uses ECONSTAT
For economic data releases, resolution uses the first officially released value (not preliminary or revised estimates unless specified). All conditions must be satisfied within the specified time period.
Additional specifications:
- POLLINGAPPROVALINPERIOD - the threshold need only be met once during the period
- CONTROL - based on the Speaker of the House on Feb 1, 2027
- NBERRECSS - requires two consecutive quarters in which the the most recent estimates of seasonally adjusted annualized percent changes of quarterly US real GDP are negative
Trump's approval rating drops below 35% + Democrats win control of the House of Representatives + The U.S. enters a recession + The U.S. unemployment rate is at least 5% in 2026
early_close_conditionThis market will close and expire early if any component becomes impossible to occur (resolving to No) or all components have been satisfied (resolving to Yes).
event_tickerKXTRUMPBEARCASECOMBO-27DEC
exchange_index0
expected_expiration_time2027-12-31T15:00:00Z
expiration_time2028-01-07T15:00:00Z
expiration_value
last_price_dollars0.0740
latest_expiration_time2028-01-07T15:00:00Z
liquidity_dollars0.0000
market_typebinary
no_ask_dollars0.9580
no_bid_dollars0.9260
no_sub_titleYes
notional_value_dollars1.0000
open_interest_fp92910.48
open_time2025-12-17T15:00:00Z
previous_price_dollars0.0740
previous_yes_ask_dollars0.0740
previous_yes_bid_dollars0.0420
price_level_structuretapered_deci_cent
price_ranges3
[0]3
end0.1000
start0.0000
step0.0010
[1]3
end0.9000
start0.1000
step0.0100
[2]3
end1.0000
start0.9000
step0.0010
result
rules_primaryIf ALL of the following occur: Trump's VoteHub approval rating drops below 35% in 2026 AND Democrats win control of the House of Representatives after the midterms AND the U.S. enters a recession between Q4 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive) AND the U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) is at least 5% in any month in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
rules_secondaryThis is a combination market requiring **ALL** specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out. If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract immediately resolves to No.
Each component is resolved according to its corresponding Kalshi ruleset:
- "Trump's VoteHub approval rating drops below 35%" uses POLLINGAPPROVALINPERIOD
- "Will Democrats win control of the House of Representatives?" uses CONTROL
- "Will the U.S. enter a recession?" uses NBERRECSS
- "Will the U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) be at least 5%?" uses ECONSTAT
For economic data releases, resolution uses the first officially released value (not preliminary or revised estimates unless specified). All conditions must be satisfied within the specified time period.
Additional specifications:
- POLLINGAPPROVALINPERIOD - the threshold need only be met once during the period
- CONTROL - based on the Speaker of the House on Feb 1, 2027
- NBERRECSS - requires two consecutive quarters in which the the most recent estimates of seasonally adjusted annualized percent changes of quarterly US real GDP are negative