Verbatim from the venue. The analyst must quote these, never paraphrase.
If John Fetterman votes Yea for Kari Lake for United States Ambassador to Jamaica before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Should such a vote result in the rejection of the Nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, or should a withdrawal of the nominee's nomination be formally communicated to the United States Senate, this market shall resolve to No. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the Nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, this market shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the confirmation of the Nominee to the Office be held, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market. If the nominee is withdrawn (or intent to nominate a nominee is withdrawn by the President or President-elect), then the market will resolve to No.
The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market. Once the vote has been closed and the correct result of the vote has been announced, a request by John Fetterman to add, remove, or alter a vote shall not be considered for purposes of resolving this market, regardless of any change to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or any other official source.
opens
May 12 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
expires
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
Recent trades
Most recent first. Price is the YES side.
Time
Yes
No
Size
Raw payload
Exactly what the API returned for this market.
Show JSON
market42
can_close_earlytrue
close_time2028-01-01T15:00:00Z
created_time2026-05-11T21:44:11.204499Z
custom_strike1
Yes ask (no bid)
Size
Yes
ask2,00272¢
ask4971¢
ask8651¢
ask10950¢
ask40249¢
ask6846¢
ask20029¢
ask527¢
spread20¢mid 17¢
bid57¢
bid56¢
bid1501¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes
Taker
8d ago
9¢
91¢
10
yes
11d ago
11¢
89¢
86
yes
21d ago
8¢
92¢
5
yes
21d ago
7¢
93¢
200
yes
2mo ago
3¢
97¢
510
no
2mo ago
7¢
93¢
5
no
2mo ago
6¢
94¢
100
no
2mo ago
5¢
95¢
200
no
Senator
John Fetterman
early_close_conditionThis market will close and expire following the first vote to confirm Kari Lake or their nomination being withdrawn.
event_tickerKXVOTELAKE-28
exchange_index0
expected_expiration_time2028-01-01T15:00:00Z
expiration_time2028-01-01T15:00:00Z
expiration_value
last_price_dollars0.0900
latest_expiration_time2028-01-01T15:00:00Z
liquidity_dollars0.0000
market_typebinary
no_ask_dollars0.9300
no_bid_dollars0.7100
no_sub_titleJohn Fetterman
notional_value_dollars1.0000
occurrence_datetime2028-01-01T15:00:00Z
open_interest_fp2552.67
open_time2026-05-12T14:00:00Z
previous_price_dollars0.0900
previous_yes_ask_dollars0.4500
previous_yes_bid_dollars0.0400
price_level_structurelinear_cent
price_ranges1
[0]3
end1.0000
start0.0000
step0.0100
result
rules_primaryIf John Fetterman votes Yea for Kari Lake for United States Ambassador to Jamaica before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
rules_secondaryShould such a vote result in the rejection of the Nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, or should a withdrawal of the nominee's nomination be formally communicated to the United States Senate, this market shall resolve to No. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the Nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, this market shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the confirmation of the Nominee to the Office be held, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market. If the nominee is withdrawn (or intent to nominate a nominee is withdrawn by the President or President-elect), then the market will resolve to No.
The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market. Once the vote has been closed and the correct result of the vote has been announced, a request by John Fetterman to add, remove, or alter a vote shall not be considered for purposes of resolving this market, regardless of any change to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or any other official source.