Will Kevin Warsh be out as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2030?

If Kevin Warsh leaves as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kevin Warsh must have an actual departure date and vacate the role within the time period. If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position. If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role. For "leave," cessation of holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expulsion, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies the role—this includes both voluntary and involuntary early departure AND the natural expiration of a term.

opens

Jul 22 · 3:35 PM UTC

closes

Jan 1, 2030 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early

expires

Jan 8, 2030 · 3:00 PM UTC

category

Politics

event

independent outcomes