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Courts consider Amazon a monopoly·closes in 40mo

Will a court find that Amazon has illegally maintained a monopoly?

YES means Government wins

24h volume
19
31.7k lifetime
Open interest
7,192
−5.75 over 7d
Spread
7¢
5.54 × 8.37 at the touch
24h range
41¢ – 42¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
42%

A YES contract costs 49¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
58%

costs 58¢

YES bid / ask
42¢ / 49¢
NO bid / ask
51¢ / 58¢
24h low 41¢24h high 42¢
Recent buying64% YES · 36% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
40¢50¢60¢70¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1,27477¢
  • ask9175¢
  • ask10074¢
  • ask1,05973¢
  • ask10070¢
  • ask5169¢
  • ask20050¢
  • ask8.3749¢
spread7¢mid 45¢
  • bid5.5442¢
  • bid23340¢
  • bid5034¢
  • bid48133¢
  • bid1032¢
  • bid529¢
  • bid1028¢
  • bid5026¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If U.S. District Court for the Western District of Washington rules that Amazon has illegally maintained a monopoly by Dec 31, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Change as of 5:00 AM ET December 15 2023: The market's terms and conditions note that, "The Expiration Date of the Contract shall be the sooner of the date of the first 10:00 AM ET following the occurrence of an event that is encompassed in the Payout Criterion or the first 10:00 AM ET after date." However, the Payout Criterion only encompasses Amazon being found liable for the counts alleged by the FTC, and not just a decision or settlement happening. The language will be amended such that expiration, like the last trading date, will happen once claims are settled, regardless of whether Amazon is found liable for the counts alleged. This will be done as part of the CFTC's provisions that allow for non-economic changes to contracts, and will be reflected in the rules today, December 15th.

Settlement sources
opened
Oct 23, 2023 · 9:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2030 · 6:58 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2030 · 9:04 AM UTC
ticker
AMAZONFTC-29DEC31
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in Courts consider Amazon a monopoly?.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 64% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2h ago42¢2.81bought no
11h ago41¢8.23bought no
13h ago42¢8.37bought no
1d ago42¢1.65bought no
1d ago40¢15bought no
2d ago40¢1.94bought no
2d ago49¢0.68bought yes
2d ago49¢3.08bought yes
2d ago50¢6.31bought yes
2d ago49¢5bought yes
3d ago48¢4.93bought yes
3d ago48¢4.99bought yes
3d ago49¢0.11bought yes
3d ago41¢4.11bought no
3d ago47¢5bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.