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Senate winner·closes in 4mo

Will Republicans win the U.S. Senate in 2026?

YES means Republican Party

24h volume
20.6k
5.15M lifetime
Open interest
2.93M
+265.4k over 7d
Spread
1¢
24.4k × 38.8k at the touch
24h range
40¢ – 42¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
40%−2

A YES contract costs 41¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
60%

costs 60¢

YES bid / ask
40¢ / 41¢
NO bid / ask
59¢ / 60¢
24h low 40¢24h high 42¢
Recent buying82% YES · 18% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
40¢50¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1,00048¢
  • ask11.6k47¢
  • ask15.9k46¢
  • ask18.2k45¢
  • ask6,42344¢
  • ask3,65643¢
  • ask86.2k42¢
  • ask38.8k41¢
spread1¢mid 41¢
  • bid24.4k40¢
  • bid13.7k39¢
  • bid5,05038¢
  • bid3,45537¢
  • bid4,58036¢
  • bid18.1k35¢
  • bid20.0k34¢
  • bid11.8k33¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Republican Party has won control of the U.S. Senate in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market may be determined early based on a consensus of media calls projecting control of the U.S. Senate. See full rules for details. Otherwise, victory will be determined by the party identification of the President pro tempore of the Senate on February 1, 2027.

Settlement sources
opened
Nov 6, 2024 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Feb 1, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Feb 1, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
CONTROLS-2026-R
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 100¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 82% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
4m ago40¢202bought no
4m ago41¢117bought yes
11m ago41¢26bought yes
11m ago41¢4.68bought yes
21m ago41¢94bought yes
30m ago41¢21bought yes
31m ago41¢562bought yes
32m ago40¢136bought no
33m ago41¢16bought yes
34m ago41¢23bought yes
38m ago41¢117bought yes
39m ago40¢1.86bought no
42m ago41¢80bought yes
42m ago41¢63bought yes
42m ago41¢263bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.