Electoral college margin of victory·closes in 32mo

Will Republican win the 2028 presidential election by 91 to 130 Electoral College votes?

YES means Republican by 91 to 130

24h volume
0
1 lifetime
Open interest
1
+1 over 7d
Spread
209 × 200 at the touch
24h range
3¢ – 3¢
1 recent trades
Chance of YES
3%

A YES contract costs and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
97%

costs 97¢

YES bid / ask
/
NO bid / ask
91¢ / 97¢
24h low 24h high
Recent buying0% YES · 100% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

0¢5¢10¢15¢volSep 15Sep 19

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask6399¢
  • ask3,38892¢
  • ask24491¢
  • ask20012¢
  • ask200
spreadmid
  • bid209
  • bid10
  • bid100
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Republican wins the Electoral College vote in 2028 by a margin of between 91-130 votes above the second-place candidate, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
May 15 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
May 6, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 8, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor
91
cap
130
ticker
ECMOV-28NOV07-REP91T130
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in its event.

Recent trades

Over the last 1 trades, 0% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
6d ago1bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.