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EU hits climate goals·closes in 75mo

Will the EU meet its climate goals?

YES means By 2030

24h volume
0
4,663 lifetime
Open interest
1,577
−1 over 7d
Spread
5¢
11 × 33 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
48%

A YES contract costs 48¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
52%

costs 57¢

YES bid / ask
43¢ / 48¢
NO bid / ask
52¢ / 57¢
Recent buying53% YES · 47% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
35¢40¢45¢50¢55¢volOct 29Nov 4

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask2062¢
  • ask2562¢
  • ask5755¢
  • ask22355¢
  • ask50049¢
  • ask3749¢
  • ask7648¢
  • ask3348¢
spread5¢mid 45¢
  • bid1143¢
  • bid543¢
  • bid3.2842¢
  • bid13342¢
  • bid542¢
  • bid1542¢
  • bid50042¢
  • bid13623¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the EU has reduced greenhouse gas emissions by 55% compared to the 1990 level by 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
May 7, 2024 · 4:00 PM UTC
closes
Dec 31, 2032 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Dec 31, 2032 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
EUCLIMATE-2030
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in EU meets its 2030 climate goals?.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 53% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
5d ago48¢1bought yes
6d ago42¢2.1bought no
6d ago48¢0.41bought yes
6d ago42¢0.41bought no
7d ago43¢9.03bought no
7d ago43¢0.08bought no
7d ago43¢9.93bought no
7d ago43¢0.03bought no
7d ago43¢0.8bought no
7d ago43¢9.89bought no
7d ago43¢0.47bought no
7d ago43¢11bought no
7d ago43¢12bought no
7d ago43¢13bought no
7d ago43¢13bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.