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Vermont Governor·closes in 14mo

Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Vermont

YES means Amanda Janoo

24h volume
11.8k
41.4k lifetime
Open interest
28.9k
Spread
2¢
140 × 9.67 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
5%−3

A YES contract costs 7¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
95%

costs 95¢

YES bid / ask
5¢ / 7¢
NO bid / ask
93¢ / 95¢
Recent buying91% YES · 9% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask2948¢
  • ask518¢
  • ask507¢
  • ask507¢
  • ask257¢
  • ask9.577¢
  • ask9.517¢
  • ask9.677¢
spread1¢mid 6¢
  • bid1405¢
  • bid2,5005¢
  • bid1004¢
  • bid1094¢
  • bid2884¢
  • bid5933¢
  • bid3503¢
  • bid50.0k3¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If a representative of the Democratic party is inaugurated as the governor of Vermont pursuant to the 2026 election, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Settlement sources
opened
Jan 26, 2025 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 3, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 5, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
GOVPARTYVT-26-D
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 100¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 91% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2h ago6¢17bought no
2h ago6¢17bought no
2h ago5¢22bought no
2h ago6¢9.99bought no
2h ago5¢9bought no
2h ago6¢10bought no
2h ago6¢0.02bought no
2h ago5¢12bought no
2h ago6¢44bought no
2h ago6¢39bought no
2h ago6¢56bought no
2h ago6¢39bought no
2h ago6¢100bought no
3h ago8¢32bought yes
3h ago8¢27bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.