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Vermont Governor·closes in 38mo

Will the Republican party win the governorship in Vermont

YES means Republican

24h volume
0
3,596 lifetime
Open interest
454
+0 over 7d
Spread
7¢
2,505 × 2,505 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
52%

A YES contract costs 59¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
48%

costs 48¢

YES bid / ask
52¢ / 59¢
NO bid / ask
41¢ / 48¢
Recent buying26% YES · 74% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢25¢50¢75¢100¢volSep 14Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1,00099¢
  • ask4699¢
  • ask4,09893¢
  • ask20093¢
  • ask2,50559¢
spread7¢mid 56¢
  • bid2,50552¢
  • bid2007¢
  • bid5,0487¢
  • bid1,0001¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If a representative of the Republican party is inaugurated as the governor of Vermont pursuant to the 2028 election, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 15, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 7, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 5, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
GOVPARTYVT-28-R
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 99¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 26% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
24d ago52¢1,087bought no
25d ago60¢7bought yes
25d ago60¢10bought yes
25d ago60¢10bought yes
25d ago54¢1bought no
25d ago53¢18bought no
25d ago60¢10bought yes
25d ago60¢10bought yes
25d ago60¢10bought yes
25d ago60¢10bought yes
25d ago60¢10bought yes
25d ago60¢10bought yes
25d ago60¢10bought yes
25d ago60¢10bought yes
25d ago60¢10bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.