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Abraham Accord Saudi Arabia·closes in 3mo

Will Israel and Indonesia normalize relations before Jan 1, 2027?

YES means Indonesia

24h volume
0
17.0k lifetime
Open interest
5,893
−0.67 over 7d
Spread
4¢
10 × 27 at the touch
24h range
4¢ – 5¢
9 recent trades
Chance of YES
4%

A YES contract costs 8¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
96%

costs 96¢

YES bid / ask
4¢ / 8¢
NO bid / ask
92¢ / 96¢
24h low 4¢24h high 5¢
Recent buying70% YES · 30% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢15¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1,06258¢
  • ask1,05457¢
  • ask10043¢
  • ask15842¢
  • ask13640¢
  • ask4839¢
  • ask20012¢
  • ask278¢
spread4¢mid 6¢
  • bid104¢
  • bid1034¢
  • bid3063¢
  • bid93¢
  • bid33¢
  • bid3882¢
  • bid5552¢
  • bid1,0001¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Israel and Indonesia normalize diplomatic relations before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

The agreement must be ratified before Jan 1, 2027 to be included within the Payout Criterion.

Settlement sources
opened
Nov 6, 2025 · 7:30 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXABRAHAMSA-27-JAN01-INDO
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in its event.

Recent trades

Over the last 9 trades, 70% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
4d ago5¢0.67bought no
4d ago4¢19bought no
27d ago10¢3.76bought yes
27d ago9¢1bought yes
2mo ago13¢0.36bought yes
2mo ago9¢10bought yes
2mo ago9¢5bought yes
2mo ago10¢14bought yes
2mo ago11¢10bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.