AI biosecurity controls·closes in 9mo

Will AI biosecurity safeguards become U.S. law before Jul 1, 2027?

YES means Before Jul 1, 2027

24h volume
0
0 lifetime
Open interest
0
+0 over 7d
Spread
5 × 100 at the touch
24h range
Chance of YES
0%

A YES contract costs 42¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
100%

costs 66¢

YES bid / ask
34¢ / 42¢
NO bid / ask
58¢ / 66¢
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask7789¢
  • ask6477¢
  • ask48976¢
  • ask32675¢
  • ask13474¢
  • ask12973¢
  • ask772¢
  • ask10042¢
spreadmid 38¢
  • bid534¢
  • bid10033¢
  • bid114
  • bid164
  • bid100
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If federal legislation requiring AI biosecurity controls has become law after Issuance and before Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

A qualifying federal law must require evaluations or safeguards for AI models or systems that specifically address biological misuse or harm. Mandatory biosecurity testing or evaluations qualify, as do controls on access, capabilities, security, deployment, or procurement tied to biological risk. The requirement may be part of a broader AI law or apply only to a defined sector or federal procurement. Studies, voluntary standards, funding, and gene-synthesis, laboratory, or biological-data rules without an operative AI-model or system requirement do not qualify. General AI or cybersecurity requirements and incident reporting alone are insufficient without the defined biosecurity evaluation or safeguard. A later effective date does not delay qualification. An example of this is Section 1654 of S. 4784, the Senate FY2027 defense authorization bill.

opened
Sep 17 · 12:00 AM UTC
closes
Jul 1, 2027 · 3:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 7, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXAIBIOSECURITY-26SEP-27JUL01
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.