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22nd Amendment·closes in 28mo

Will the 22nd Amendment be repealed or reinterpreted to let Presidents run for a third term before Jan 1, 2029

YES means Before Jan 1, 2029

24h volume
581
314.7k lifetime
Open interest
89.2k
+2,224 over 7d
Spread
1¢
110 × 2,500 at the touch
24h range
6¢ – 8¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
7%+0

A YES contract costs 7¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
93%

costs 94¢

YES bid / ask
6¢ / 7¢
NO bid / ask
93¢ / 94¢
24h low 6¢24h high 8¢
Recent buying68% YES · 32% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢15¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask25018¢
  • ask2115¢
  • ask42914¢
  • ask15.8k13¢
  • ask60412¢
  • ask2.611¢
  • ask497¢
  • ask2,5007¢
spread1¢mid 7¢
  • bid1106¢
  • bid2,5896¢
  • bid8376¢
  • bid1,3946¢
  • bid1,0436¢
  • bid145¢
  • bid185¢
  • bid5005¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the 22nd Amendment has been repealed by a subsequent Constitutional Amendment, or if the Supreme Court of the United States has ruled in an opinion or judgment that the 22nd Amendment permits individuals to be elected to the Presidency at least thrice under at least some circumstances, before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Nov 9, 2024 · 7:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 21, 2029 · 5:30 PM UTC
ticker
KXAMEND22-29-JAN01
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in Will Trump be allowed to run for a 3rd term?.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 68% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
47m ago7¢26bought yes
48m ago7¢275bought yes
1h ago8¢103bought yes
1h ago8¢4.16bought yes
1h ago8¢7.8bought yes
11h ago6¢8.25bought no
11h ago6¢7bought no
11h ago6¢8.6bought no
11h ago6¢5.95bought no
11h ago6¢1.95bought no
17h ago8¢22bought yes
17h ago8¢0.28bought yes
17h ago7¢20bought yes
17h ago8¢19bought yes
17h ago8¢0.45bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.