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Anthropic·closes in 16mo

Will Mizuho take Anthropic public before Jan 1, 2028?

YES means Mizuho

24h volume
0
2,118 lifetime
Open interest
1,010
Spread
6¢
0.02 × 66 at the touch
24h range
–
26 recent trades
Chance of YES
84%

A YES contract costs 88¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
16%

costs 18¢

YES bid / ask
82¢ / 88¢
NO bid / ask
12¢ / 18¢
Recent buying75% YES · 25% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask25298¢
  • ask20089¢
  • ask6688¢
spread6¢mid 85¢
  • bid0.0282¢
  • bid20081¢
  • bid110¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Mizuho serves as a lead underwriter for Anthropic's initial public offering in the United States before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

The bank must serve as lead underwriter, book-running manager, or global coordinator as documented in SEC filings (Form S-1 or final prospectus) or official announcements. Joint book-running managers qualify. Direct listings, SPAC mergers, secondary offerings, and private placements do not qualify. If the bank merges with another institution, the surviving entity under any name qualifies. For dual listings, only the U.S. portion is considered. Even if the IPO is later shelved, the market resolves Yes based on the announcement of the underwriting relationship.

Settlement sources
opened
Jun 3 · 9:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2028 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXANTHROPICBANKPUBLIC-28JAN01-MZHOX
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 26 trades, 75% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
7d ago83¢5bought yes
7d ago84¢200bought yes
9d ago81¢1bought yes
9d ago89¢25bought yes
10d ago73¢25bought no
10d ago73¢70bought no
10d ago81¢200bought no
10d ago81¢4bought no
13d ago89¢6bought no
13d ago88¢10bought no
16d ago76¢1bought no
16d ago89¢200bought yes
17d ago69¢500bought yes
17d ago67¢200bought yes
17d ago64¢307bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.