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Anthropic lead left IPO·closes in 16mo

Will Goldman Sachs serve as lead-left underwriter on Anthropic's IPO?

YES means Goldman Sachs

24h volume
0
14.9k lifetime
Open interest
3,068
−26 over 7d
Spread
4¢
23 × 150 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
15%

A YES contract costs 16¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
85%

costs 88¢

YES bid / ask
12¢ / 16¢
NO bid / ask
84¢ / 88¢
Recent buying66% YES · 34% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢15¢20¢volSep 14Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask36099¢
  • ask190¢
  • ask1488¢
  • ask1,43986¢
  • ask3085¢
  • ask2.157¢
  • ask20019¢
  • ask15016¢
spread4¢mid 14¢
  • bid2312¢
  • bid20011¢
  • bid1023¢
  • bid2812¢
  • bid501¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Goldman Sachs serves as lead-left underwriter on Anthropic's initial public offering in the United States before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

If two or more underwriters are presented on the cover of the final prospectus as jointly occupying the lead-left position, such that no single underwriter is uppermost-and-leftmost (for example, two names sharing equal top billing), then each such underwriter's outcome resolves to $1/(the number of tied underwriters), rounded down, for “Yes”, and “No” will be paid $1 minus the Yes value.

Settlement sources
opened
Jun 3 · 9:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2028 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXANTHROPICLEADLEFT-28JAN01B-GSX
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 102¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 66% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2d ago15¢15bought no
2d ago15¢8.54bought no
2d ago15¢2.62bought no
7d ago16¢50bought no
7d ago19¢131bought yes
7d ago18¢34bought yes
7d ago18¢25bought yes
7d ago14¢67bought no
7d ago15¢50bought no
7d ago19¢69bought yes
7d ago18¢48bought yes
7d ago18¢2.1bought yes
8d ago17¢189bought yes
8d ago17¢500bought yes
8d ago17¢200bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.