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Biden Ambien·closes in 16mo

Will it be reported that Joe Biden Using Ambien before debates?

YES means Before 2028

24h volume
0
8,213 lifetime
Open interest
3,498
+0 over 7d
Spread
6¢
50 × 240 at the touch
24h range
–
22 recent trades
Chance of YES
24%

A YES contract costs 24¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
76%

costs 82¢

YES bid / ask
18¢ / 24¢
NO bid / ask
76¢ / 82¢
Recent buying99% YES · 1% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
15¢20¢25¢30¢35¢volSep 17, 8:00 AMSep 19, 8:00 PM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask2,000100¢
  • ask5,555100¢
  • ask80100¢
  • ask2098¢
  • ask2895¢
  • ask24024¢
spread6¢mid 21¢
  • bid5018¢
  • bid20015¢
  • bid253¢
  • bid212¢
  • bid21¢
  • bid751¢
  • bid11.0k0¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Joe Biden using Ambien before the 2024 presidential debate is reported on by any of the Source Agencies before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

It must be originally reported by one of the Source Agencies; e.g. a publication reporting on a person saying so is not encompassed by the Payout Criterion.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 23, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2028 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXBIDENAMBIEN-28
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in Will it be reported that Joe Biden used Ambien before the 2024 presidential debate?.

Recent trades

Over the last 22 trades, 99% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
20d ago24¢25bought yes
20d ago24¢161bought yes
1mo ago17¢2.38bought no
2mo ago22¢0.12bought yes
2mo ago19¢0.12bought no
2mo ago21¢15bought yes
2mo ago23¢22bought yes
2mo ago21¢85bought yes
2mo ago21¢15bought yes
2mo ago87¢33bought yes
2mo ago12¢3bought yes
2mo ago85¢15bought yes
2mo ago14¢267bought yes
2mo ago11¢7.25bought yes
2mo ago14¢133bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.