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Bitcoin monthly one touch·closes in 10d

Will BTC trimmed mean be above $82500.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Sep 30, 2026?

YES means Above $82,500.00

24h volume
19.9k
393.3k lifetime
Open interest
160.9k
+68.3k over 7d
Spread
1¢
878 × 7.77 at the touch
24h range
18¢ – 88¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
74%−1

A YES contract costs 74¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
26%

costs 27¢

YES bid / ask
73¢ / 74¢
NO bid / ask
26¢ / 27¢
24h low 18¢24h high 88¢
Recent buying18% YES · 82% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
25¢50¢75¢volSep 14Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask10084¢
  • ask3083¢
  • ask2,39380¢
  • ask7379¢
  • ask3,05678¢
  • ask18677¢
  • ask10475¢
  • ask7.7774¢
spread1¢mid 74¢
  • bid87873¢
  • bid66572¢
  • bid3,10071¢
  • bid10063¢
  • bid12160¢
  • bid10056¢
  • bid1,00055¢
  • bid10051¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the price of BTC after issuance and through 11:59 PM ET on Sep 30, 2026 is ever above $ 82500.00, then the market resolves to Yes.

At each minute throughout the market duration, a settlement value is calculated using every minute-by-minute CF BRTI price for BTC. For each of these individual minute-by-minute checks, the top 20% and bottom 20% of the cumulative dataset are removed before calculating the average of the remaining values. If the trimmed mean associated with any single minute during the period is above the threshold, the market resolves to Yes. This methodology reduces the impact of extreme price spikes or drops. The measurement period runs from when the market is issued until the specified end time. If CF Benchmarks data is unavailable or incomplete at the expiration time, affected strikes resolve to No. For cryptocurrencies with multiple versions, the Exchange will specify which version or ticker is being tracked.

Settlement sources
opened
Sep 1 · 4:10 AM UTC
closes
Oct 1 · 3:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Oct 1 · 3:59 AM UTC
floor
82500
ticker
KXBTCMAXMON-BTC-26SEP30-8250000
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in its event.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 18% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
14m ago74¢2.65bought yes
29m ago73¢152bought no
29m ago73¢20bought no
46m ago74¢6.58bought yes
46m ago73¢90bought no
46m ago73¢52bought no
46m ago73¢30bought no
50m ago73¢13bought no
50m ago73¢20bought no
50m ago73¢30bought no
1h ago72¢3.43bought no
1h ago70¢1,398bought no
1h ago71¢5bought no
1h ago69¢930bought no
1h ago70¢500bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.