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Next Cabinet memeber out·closes in 28mo

Will Howard Lutnick be the next person to leave the Trump Cabinet?

YES means Howard Lutnick

24h volume
0
9,664 lifetime
Open interest
5,343
+814 over 7d
Spread
5¢
5.56 × 493 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
6%

A YES contract costs 11¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
94%

costs 94¢

YES bid / ask
6¢ / 11¢
NO bid / ask
89¢ / 94¢
Recent buying89% YES · 11% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢15¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask9857¢
  • ask1,25456¢
  • ask8755¢
  • ask1538¢
  • ask10232¢
  • ask425¢
  • ask1,02412¢
  • ask49311¢
spread5¢mid 9¢
  • bid5.566¢
  • bid65¢
  • bid64¢
  • bid1,3483¢
  • bid5562¢
  • bid1,1731¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Howard Lutnick is the first member of the Cabinet of Donald Trump to leave or announce they will leave (such as by quitting, being fired, or being impeached) after May 22, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

If two persons announce they intend to leave at the same time, then the one who leaves first will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No. If multiple persons both announce they intend to leave and leave at the same time as other members, then the one whose last name is alphabetically first will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No. A leave of absence does not constitute leaving the position. For purposes of this Contract, the Cabinet includes the heads of the 15 government agencies in the Cabinet as of Issuance, as well the Administrator of the EPA, the President’s Chief of Staff, Director of National Intelligence, Director of OMB, Director of CIA, United States Trade Representative, Ambassador to the UN, Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, Administrator of the SBA, and Director of OSTP. Acting roles are not included. Leaving office as a result of death is not encompassed by the Payout Criterion.

Settlement sources
opened
May 22 · 6:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 20, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 20, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXCABOUT-26MAY22-HLUT
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 100¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 89% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2d ago7¢6bought no
2d ago6¢0.44bought no
2d ago8¢6bought no
2d ago8¢19bought no
2d ago8¢5bought no
3d ago11¢858bought yes
3d ago9¢6bought no
3d ago10¢6bought no
3d ago9¢0.61bought no
4d ago10¢1bought no
7d ago10¢6.03bought no
7d ago10¢5bought no
8d ago10¢1bought no
8d ago11¢7.29bought yes
9d ago11¢6bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.