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How many House seats will Democrats win in California?·closes in 14mo

Will Democrats win above 49 seats in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in California?

YES means 50 and above

24h volume
0
470 lifetime
Open interest
437
+0 over 7d
Spread
1¢
500 × 664 at the touch
24h range
–
Chance of YES
13%

A YES contract costs 5¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
87%

costs 96¢

YES bid / ask
4¢ / 5¢
NO bid / ask
95¢ / 96¢
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢15¢volSep 14Sep 19

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1,21540¢
  • ask4439¢
  • ask21133¢
  • ask232¢
  • ask512¢
  • ask50011¢
  • ask205¢
  • ask6645¢
spread1¢mid 4¢
  • bid5004¢
  • bid2000¢
  • bid1,0000¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Democratic party has won at least 50 seats in 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in California, then the market resolves to Yes.

A seat is considered "won" when a candidate affiliated with the specified party has been declared elected by the relevant electoral authority and either the time for legal challenges has expired, challenges have been resolved, or the member has taken their seat. Party affiliation is determined by the party under whose banner the candidate was elected, regardless of subsequent changes. The count is determined when the new legislature takes their seats, even if some seats remain vacant or challenged. If the election is postponed beyond one year from the original date or cancelled entirely, the market resolves to the last fair market price. Only seats actually contested and filled are counted in partial elections. By-elections after the main election are included only if seated simultaneously with the rest of the legislature.

Settlement sources
opened
Feb 5 · 12:00 AM UTC
closes
Nov 3, 2027 · 2:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Nov 24, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor
50
ticker
KXCAHOUSEDEM-26NOV03-A49
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 109¢).

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.