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Panama Canal retaken·closes in 28mo

Will Trump take back the Panama Canal?

YES means During Trump's term

24h volume
287
602.7k lifetime
Open interest
101.7k
Spread
2¢
56 × 198 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
22%+6

A YES contract costs 22¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
78%

costs 80¢

YES bid / ask
20¢ / 22¢
NO bid / ask
78¢ / 80¢
Recent buying54% YES · 46% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask2,05944¢
  • ask11531¢
  • ask30029¢
  • ask6027¢
  • ask3026¢
  • ask7525¢
  • ask5,24123¢
  • ask19822¢
spread2¢mid 21¢
  • bid5620¢
  • bid317¢
  • bid5,18316¢
  • bid1,05215¢
  • bid21514¢
  • bid9,35513¢
  • bid1,60812¢
  • bid9,30511¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the United States government has taken control of at least some part of the Panama Canal before January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Jan 3, 2025 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 20, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 20, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXCANAL-29
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in Will Trump take back the Panama Canal?.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 54% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
31m ago22¢0.86bought yes
1h ago20¢5.05bought yes
1h ago20¢5bought yes
1h ago20¢10bought yes
1h ago20¢5bought yes
6h ago21¢3.69bought yes
6h ago19¢6.9bought yes
6h ago22¢3.77bought yes
6h ago19¢5bought yes
6h ago21¢3bought yes
6h ago20¢5bought yes
6h ago22¢1bought yes
9h ago18¢2.44bought no
9h ago17¢39bought no
9h ago18¢5.74bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.