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Canadian acquisition·closes in 28mo

Will the United States acquire any part of Canada before 2029?

YES means Before 2029

24h volume
119
145.1k lifetime
Open interest
38.5k
+264 over 7d
Spread
1¢
16 × 7.91 at the touch
24h range
9¢ – 18¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
10%−4

A YES contract costs 10¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
90%

costs 91¢

YES bid / ask
9¢ / 10¢
NO bid / ask
90¢ / 91¢
24h low 9¢24h high 18¢
Recent buying75% YES · 25% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
5¢10¢15¢20¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask2027¢
  • ask3,02524¢
  • ask91719¢
  • ask5518¢
  • ask117¢
  • ask116¢
  • ask21010¢
  • ask7.9110¢
spread1¢mid 9¢
  • bid169¢
  • bid739¢
  • bid908¢
  • bid4538¢
  • bid4837¢
  • bid8796¢
  • bid895¢
  • bid205¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the United States acquires any part of Canada before Jan 21, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

An announcement by the United States and the entity that controls any part of Canada that it will happen is also encompassed by the Payout Criterion. any part of Canada must come under formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system, where it was not previously. Merely leasing a given part in territory – for example, setting up a military base on leased territory – is not encompassed by the Payout Criterion.

Settlement sources
opened
Jan 9, 2025 · 6:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 21, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 21, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXCANTERRITORY-29
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in Will the US take control of any part of Canada?.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 75% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
3h ago10¢0.48bought yes
3h ago10¢0.52bought yes
3h ago9¢1.09bought no
3h ago10¢10bought yes
3h ago9¢1.1bought no
3h ago9¢9.18bought no
4h ago12¢5bought no
4h ago13¢5bought no
4h ago13¢8.56bought no
4h ago9¢9.59bought no
4h ago10¢2.67bought no
4h ago10¢10bought no
4h ago14¢1bought yes
4h ago17¢1.89bought yes
4h ago16¢1bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.