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Claude Model Release·closes in 10d

Will Anthropic release Mythos before Oct 1, 2026?

YES means Before Oct 1, 2026

24h volume
0
159.3k lifetime
Open interest
29.0k
Spread
2¢
0 × 2,978 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
2%

A YES contract costs 2¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
98%

costs 100¢

YES bid / ask
0¢ / 2¢
NO bid / ask
98¢ / 100¢
Recent buying71% YES · 29% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask10023¢
  • ask20020¢
  • ask30014¢
  • ask20013¢
  • ask2007¢
  • ask5005¢
  • ask4433¢
  • ask2,9782¢
spread–mid –
    Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

    How this market resolves

    Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

    If Anthropic releases A model called Mythos before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

    Release must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable.

    Settlement sources
    opened
    Apr 16 · 2:00 AM UTC
    closes
    Oct 1 · 3:59 AM UTC · may close early
    settles by
    Jan 1, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
    ticker
    KXCLAUDE-MYTH-26OCT01
    Trade it on kalshi.com

    This event

    Outcomes in this event settle independently.

    This is the only market in its event.

    Recent trades

    Over the last 50 trades, 71% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

    WhenYESContractsSide
    4d ago2¢21bought yes
    4d ago2¢1bought yes
    4d ago1¢800bought yes
    4d ago1¢1,200bought yes
    4d ago1¢1,000bought yes
    7d ago1¢1,500bought yes
    7d ago1¢4,286bought yes
    7d ago1¢1,000bought yes
    7d ago1¢93bought yes
    9d ago1¢5bought yes
    12d ago1¢1,000bought yes
    15d ago1¢1,500bought yes
    16d ago1¢103bought yes
    17d ago1¢3,000bought no
    17d ago1¢1,000bought no

    Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.