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New constitutional amendment·closes in 28mo

Will a new Constitutional Amendment be added before Jan 20, 2029?

YES means During Trump's term

24h volume
0
39.5k lifetime
Open interest
11.7k
−179 over 7d
Spread
1¢
500 × 67 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
9%

A YES contract costs 9¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
91%

costs 92¢

YES bid / ask
8¢ / 9¢
NO bid / ask
91¢ / 92¢
Recent buying37% YES · 63% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢15¢20¢volSep 14Sep 19

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask11615¢
  • ask15114¢
  • ask10113¢
  • ask81012¢
  • ask59011¢
  • ask57810¢
  • ask6889¢
  • ask679¢
spread1¢mid 9¢
  • bid5008¢
  • bid1.078¢
  • bid6968¢
  • bid3457¢
  • bid505¢
  • bid3415¢
  • bid904¢
  • bid14¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the U.S. adds a new constitutional amendment before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Nov 21, 2024 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 20, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 20, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXCONSTAMEND-29-JAN20
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in Will a new Constitutional Amendment be added during Trump's term?.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 37% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
1d ago9¢0.92bought yes
1d ago9¢0.15bought yes
1d ago8¢1.07bought no
2d ago8¢120bought no
2d ago8¢55bought no
2d ago8¢3.9bought no
2d ago8¢2.2bought no
3d ago8¢5.28bought no
6d ago9¢2.2bought yes
7d ago9¢0.53bought yes
7d ago9¢3.37bought yes
8d ago9¢0.09bought yes
8d ago8¢1.02bought no
8d ago8¢2.88bought no
9d ago9¢0.09bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.