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US democratic backsliding·closes in 32mo

Will the US fall below 7.50 during the Trump Administration on the Economist's Democracy Index between 2025 and 2028

YES means Below 7.50

24h volume
6.39
11.9k lifetime
Open interest
6,166
Spread
6¢
5 × 500 at the touch
24h range
–
Chance of YES
77%+7

A YES contract costs 71¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
23%

costs 35¢

YES bid / ask
65¢ / 71¢
NO bid / ask
29¢ / 35¢
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1,88497¢
  • ask11294¢
  • ask12593¢
  • ask6.3990¢
  • ask55089¢
  • ask6179¢
  • ask9577¢
  • ask50071¢
spread6¢mid 68¢
  • bid565¢
  • bid1064¢
  • bid50063¢
  • bid560¢
  • bid6550¢
  • bid55017¢
  • bid1,38016¢
  • bid4815¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the United States falls below 7.50 in any year between 2025 and 2028 (inclusive) on the Economist's Democracy Index, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Nov 13, 2024 · 3:00 AM UTC
closes
May 17, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Dec 26, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
cap
7.5
ticker
KXDEMOCRACYUS-28-7.50
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.