Will Trump win his BBC lawsuit·closes in 16mo

Will Donald Trump win Donald J. Trump v. British Broadcasting Corporation?

YES means Before 2028

24h volume
0
3,135 lifetime
Open interest
1,998
+336 over 7d
Spread
5 × 200 at the touch
24h range
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
25%

A YES contract costs 25¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
75%

costs 83¢

YES bid / ask
17¢ / 25¢
NO bid / ask
75¢ / 83¢
Recent buying86% YES · 14% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

10¢20¢30¢40¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask2875¢
  • ask20065¢
  • ask33063¢
  • ask8662¢
  • ask561¢
  • ask3.9539¢
  • ask7.326¢
  • ask20025¢
spreadmid 21¢
  • bid517¢
  • bid1016¢
  • bid22115¢
  • bid7.12
  • bid48
  • bid351
  • bid807
  • bid2,273
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Donald Trump has achieved the superior outcome in the trial-level resolution of Donald J. Trump v. British Broadcasting Corporation (originally filed in the United States District Court for the Southern District of Florida), then the market resolves to Yes.

Donald Trump achieves the superior outcome through the following exclusive hierarchy: Net Monetary Recovery (Highest Priority): Donald Trump achieves the superior outcome if they receive a larger net monetary award than all opposing parties combined (after offsetting any awards against Donald Trump). Attorney's fees and costs are excluded. Substantive Legal Victory (Second Priority): If no net monetary advantage exists, Donald Trump achieves the superior outcome if they prevail on claims seeking the largest dollar amount of relief in their original pleadings, or if relief amounts are equal, on the greater number of primary causes of action. Case Termination Advantage (Third Priority): If the case terminates without substantive judgment, Donald Trump achieves the superior outcome if (as defendant) all claims are dismissed with prejudice, or (as plaintiff) opposing parties voluntarily dismiss all claims with prejudice. All other termination scenarios result in no superior outcome for any party. Settlements: Superior outcome if net payment flows to Donald Trump; no superior outcome if payment flows from Donald Trump; no party achieves superior outcome if terms are sealed or undisclosed. Key exclusions: Applies only to trial-level resolution — specifically excludes all appeals processes. Procedural victories alone do not constitute superior outcomes.

opened
May 22 · 5:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXDJTBBC-28
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in Will Trump win his BBC lawsuit?.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 86% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2d ago25¢0.41bought yes
2d ago25¢27bought yes
2d ago25¢14bought yes
2d ago25¢200bought yes
5d ago25¢0.95bought yes
6d ago22¢4.12bought yes
6d ago24¢94bought yes
6d ago23¢1.18bought yes
7d ago17¢4.12bought no
22d ago17¢1.18bought no
23d ago24¢26bought yes
23d ago23¢10bought yes
26d ago16¢17bought no
26d ago17¢5bought no
28d ago17¢5bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.