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Democratic Senate seats·closes in 4mo

Will the Democratic Party hold 51 seats in the 120th Congress?

YES means 51

24h volume
9,917
219.7k lifetime
Open interest
180.8k
Spread
1¢
5,570 × 23.0k at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
16%+1

A YES contract costs 16¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
84%

costs 85¢

YES bid / ask
15¢ / 16¢
NO bid / ask
84¢ / 85¢
Recent buying94% YES · 6% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask4,53123¢
  • ask4,50422¢
  • ask5,60121¢
  • ask4,10520¢
  • ask5,01819¢
  • ask6.0718¢
  • ask1,70317¢
  • ask23.0k16¢
spread1¢mid 16¢
  • bid5,57015¢
  • bid5,85514¢
  • bid61813¢
  • bid3012¢
  • bid10011¢
  • bid25610¢
  • bid1668¢
  • bid136¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Democratic Party has exactly 51 Senate seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Individuals caucusing with either party will be included with them (e.g. an Independent who caucuses with a party, like Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders who caucuses with the Democrats, would be counted as a Democrat).

Settlement sources
opened
Dec 20, 2025 · 4:00 PM UTC
closes
Feb 1, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Feb 1, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor
51
cap
51
ticker
KXDSENATESEATS-27-51
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 105¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 94% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2h ago16¢1,063bought yes
4h ago16¢295bought yes
4h ago16¢71bought yes
4h ago16¢224bought yes
4h ago16¢145bought yes
5h ago16¢5.9bought yes
6h ago16¢5.9bought yes
7h ago16¢59bought yes
8h ago16¢60bought yes
8h ago16¢500bought yes
8h ago16¢200bought yes
8h ago16¢420bought yes
8h ago16¢5.9bought yes
8h ago16¢5.9bought yes
8h ago16¢295bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.