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Earthquake in Japan·closes in 40mo

Will there be an at least 8.0 magnitude earthquake in Japan before 2030?

YES means Before 2030

24h volume
27
44.6k lifetime
Open interest
13.9k
−23 over 7d
Spread
1¢
134 × 63 at the touch
24h range
38¢ – 38¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
38%

A YES contract costs 38¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
62%

costs 63¢

YES bid / ask
37¢ / 38¢
NO bid / ask
62¢ / 63¢
24h low 38¢24h high 38¢
Recent buying49% YES · 51% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
30¢35¢40¢45¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask20056¢
  • ask50050¢
  • ask45049¢
  • ask16746¢
  • ask6943¢
  • ask10042¢
  • ask8241¢
  • ask6338¢
spread1¢mid 38¢
  • bid13437¢
  • bid7533¢
  • bid12332¢
  • bid25028¢
  • bid1524¢
  • bid7122¢
  • bid7521¢
  • bid22720¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If there is at least an earthquake of 8.0 magnitude with an epicenter in Japan or its territorial waters before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
May 24, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2030 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2030 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor
8
ticker
KXEARTHQUAKEJAPAN-30
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in 8.0 magnitude earthquake in Japan before 2030?.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 49% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
1h ago38¢27bought yes
1d ago38¢1.38bought yes
1d ago38¢0.92bought yes
2d ago37¢0.92bought no
3d ago37¢10bought no
3d ago38¢5.04bought yes
6d ago37¢12bought no
6d ago38¢5.04bought yes
9d ago38¢40bought yes
11d ago37¢708bought no
13d ago37¢40bought no
13d ago38¢25bought yes
16d ago38¢3.57bought yes
16d ago37¢3.57bought no
17d ago37¢1.17bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.