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How low will Ethereum fall this year?·closes in 3mo

Will Ethereum reach below $1500.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM ET?

YES means Below $1,500.00

24h volume
560
437.5k lifetime
Open interest
126.5k
Spread
1¢
3,000 × 1,167 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
13%−7

A YES contract costs 14¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
87%

costs 87¢

YES bid / ask
13¢ / 14¢
NO bid / ask
86¢ / 87¢
Recent buying18% YES · 82% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask10070¢
  • ask9.0266¢
  • ask2,00030¢
  • ask5529¢
  • ask40023¢
  • ask1622¢
  • ask3,34220¢
  • ask1,16714¢
spread1¢mid 14¢
  • bid3,00013¢
  • bid21112¢
  • bid1,46211¢
  • bid1110¢
  • bid2.069¢
  • bid1108¢
  • bid5957¢
  • bid3346¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the spot price of Ethereum in U.S. dollars is below 1500.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.

The Ethereum price is measured using the CF Ethereum Real-Time Index (ETHUSD_RTI) with a trimmed mean calculation that excludes the top 20% and bottom 20% of minute-by-minute values between market issuance and the target time. The market resolves based on whether the trimmed mean price reaches the specified level by the deadline. If no data is available at expiration, the market resolves to No. Price data from CF Benchmarks is considered authoritative and revisions after expiration do not affect market resolution.

Settlement sources
opened
Jan 1 · 5:00 AM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2027 · 5:00 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2027 · 5:00 AM UTC
cap
1500
ticker
KXETHMINY-27JAN01-1500
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 18% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2h ago13¢28bought no
4h ago13¢49bought yes
4h ago13¢4.25bought yes
4h ago13¢13bought yes
5h ago13¢10bought yes
5h ago13¢73bought yes
5h ago13¢10bought yes
6h ago13¢8.71bought yes
6h ago13¢8.71bought yes
6h ago13¢8.71bought yes
11h ago18¢4.35bought yes
11h ago19¢1bought yes
11h ago16¢100bought yes
11h ago15¢100bought yes
11h ago16¢2.52bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.