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Fed funds rate·closes in 4mo

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 0.25% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?

YES means Above 0.25%

24h volume
0
1,143 lifetime
Open interest
626
Spread
4¢
11 × 408 at the touch
24h range
–
23 recent trades
Chance of YES
98%

A YES contract costs 99¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
2%

costs 5¢

YES bid / ask
95¢ / 99¢
NO bid / ask
1¢ / 5¢
Recent buying76% YES · 24% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask40899¢
spread4¢mid 97¢
  • bid1195¢
  • bid4494¢
  • bid11693¢
  • bid50092¢
  • bid9.2391¢
  • bid1,09990¢
  • bid2088¢
  • bid12687¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 0.25% following the Federal Reserve's Jan 27, 2027 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their Jan 27, 2027 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting.

Settlement sources
opened
Oct 6, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 27, 2027 · 6:55 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 27, 2027 · 7:05 PM UTC
floor
0.25
ticker
KXFED-27JAN-T0.25
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 23 trades, 76% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
4d ago98¢15bought yes
4d ago94¢0.57bought no
4d ago93¢13bought no
4d ago93¢1.77bought no
5d ago98¢1bought yes
18d ago97¢57bought yes
18d ago97¢1bought yes
21d ago99¢0.11bought yes
21d ago98¢0.89bought yes
1mo ago97¢51bought yes
1mo ago97¢58bought yes
2mo ago95¢2bought no
2mo ago93¢16bought yes
2mo ago93¢6bought yes
2mo ago93¢18bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.