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Fed meeting·closes in 10mo

Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by >25bps at their July 2027 meeting?

YES means Hike >25bps

24h volume
0
1,516 lifetime
Open interest
943
+267 over 7d
Spread
11¢
100 × 2 at the touch
24h range
2¢ – 10¢
29 recent trades
Chance of YES
10%

A YES contract costs 14¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
90%

costs 97¢

YES bid / ask
3¢ / 14¢
NO bid / ask
86¢ / 97¢
24h low 2¢24h high 10¢
Recent buying81% YES · 19% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢15¢20¢volSep 14Sep 19

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask9224¢
  • ask30023¢
  • ask2522¢
  • ask30020¢
  • ask10019¢
  • ask1118¢
  • ask117¢
  • ask214¢
spread11¢mid 9¢
  • bid1003¢
  • bid3002¢
  • bid1,0001¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of >25bps on July 28, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No. Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for "Fed maintains rate" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.

Settlement sources
opened
Oct 6, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Jul 28, 2027 · 5:59 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jul 28, 2027 · 6:05 PM UTC
ticker
KXFEDDECISION-27JUL-H26
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 108¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 29 trades, 81% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
4d ago10¢100bought yes
4d ago10¢33bought yes
4d ago10¢67bought yes
4d ago2¢14bought no
4d ago3¢78bought yes
4d ago9¢22bought yes
9d ago2¢30bought yes
26d ago2¢2bought no
2mo ago4¢115bought no
2mo ago5¢1bought no
2mo ago5¢24bought no
2mo ago4¢1bought no
2mo ago6¢1bought no
2mo ago7¢142bought yes
2mo ago3¢100bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.