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Fed meeting·closes in 6mo

Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by >25bps at their March 2027 meeting?

YES means Hike >25bps

24h volume
47
1,871 lifetime
Open interest
1,018
+436 over 7d
Spread
1¢
956 × 2,230 at the touch
24h range
2¢ – 2¢
29 recent trades
Chance of YES
2%+1

A YES contract costs 2¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
98%

costs 99¢

YES bid / ask
1¢ / 2¢
NO bid / ask
98¢ / 99¢
24h low 2¢24h high 2¢
Recent buying42% YES · 58% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢volSep 14Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask16835¢
  • ask134¢
  • ask130¢
  • ask30013¢
  • ask2812¢
  • ask711¢
  • ask3217¢
  • ask2,2302¢
spread1¢mid 2¢
  • bid9561¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of >25bps on March 17, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No. Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for "Fed maintains rate" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.

Settlement sources
opened
Oct 6, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Mar 17, 2027 · 5:59 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Mar 17, 2027 · 6:05 PM UTC
ticker
KXFEDDECISION-27MAR-H26
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 109¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 29 trades, 42% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
24h ago2¢47bought yes
3d ago1¢20bought no
3d ago1¢278bought no
3d ago1¢2bought no
3d ago1¢2bought no
3d ago1¢6bought no
3d ago1¢43bought no
3d ago1¢43bought no
3d ago2¢6bought no
4d ago1¢15bought no
4d ago2¢12bought no
17d ago3¢5bought no
19d ago4¢3bought yes
26d ago4¢40bought yes
26d ago4¢10bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.