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Fed funds rate at year end·closes in 40mo

Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2029 be above 4.50%?

YES means Above 4.50%

24h volume
0
33 lifetime
Open interest
18
+0 over 7d
Spread
48¢
9 × 2 at the touch
24h range
–
11 recent trades
Chance of YES
35%

A YES contract costs 59¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
65%

costs 89¢

YES bid / ask
11¢ / 59¢
NO bid / ask
41¢ / 89¢
Recent buying82% YES · 18% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
25¢50¢75¢volSep 14Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask22.0k89¢
  • ask17.8k84¢
  • ask2,06881¢
  • ask4,48378¢
  • ask4977¢
  • ask3775¢
  • ask20060¢
  • ask259¢
spread48¢mid 35¢
  • bid911¢
  • bid20010¢
  • bid2009¢
  • bid5,9228¢
  • bid575¢
  • bid18.9k4¢
  • bid2,0282¢
  • bid186.9k1¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2029, as published on the Federal Reserve’s official website, is above 4.50%, then the market resolves to Yes.

If the Federal Reserve specifies a single target rate rather than a target range, that target rate will be used.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 29 · 6:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2030 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 8, 2030 · 6:30 AM UTC
floor
4.5
ticker
KXFEDFUNDSYEAR-30JAN01-T4.50
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 11 trades, 82% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2mo ago35¢9bought yes
2mo ago33¢3bought yes
2mo ago33¢4bought yes
2mo ago33¢2bought yes
2mo ago33¢6bought yes
2mo ago32¢3bought yes
2mo ago30¢2bought no
2mo ago31¢2bought no
2mo ago25¢0.05bought no
2mo ago25¢1.94bought no
2mo ago25¢0.01bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.