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Fed funds rate at year end·closes in 89mo

Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2033 be above 5.25%?

YES means Above 5.25%

24h volume
0
168 lifetime
Open interest
91
+0 over 7d
Spread
10¢
4 × 100 at the touch
24h range
–
14 recent trades
Chance of YES
29%

A YES contract costs 33¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
71%

costs 77¢

YES bid / ask
23¢ / 33¢
NO bid / ask
67¢ / 77¢
Recent buying35% YES · 65% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
20¢25¢30¢35¢40¢volSep 14Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Order book unavailable.

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2033, as published on the Federal Reserve’s official website, is above 5.25%, then the market resolves to Yes.

If the Federal Reserve specifies a single target rate rather than a target range, that target rate will be used.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 29 · 6:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2034 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 8, 2034 · 6:30 AM UTC
floor
5.25
ticker
KXFEDFUNDSYEAR-34JAN01-T5.25
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in its event.

Recent trades

Over the last 14 trades, 35% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
25d ago29¢50bought no
25d ago29¢50bought no
1mo ago31¢25bought yes
2mo ago28¢15bought yes
2mo ago26¢1bought no
2mo ago30¢1bought no
2mo ago30¢2bought no
2mo ago24¢12bought yes
2mo ago24¢3bought yes
2mo ago19¢5bought no
2mo ago19¢1bought no
2mo ago16¢1bought yes
2mo ago18¢2bought yes
2mo ago13¢0.01bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.