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Fed funds rate at year end·closes in 125mo

Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2036 be above 2.75%?

YES means Above 2.75%

24h volume
0
138 lifetime
Open interest
96
Spread
48¢
5 × 200 at the touch
24h range
–
16 recent trades
Chance of YES
75%

A YES contract costs 76¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
25%

costs 72¢

YES bid / ask
28¢ / 76¢
NO bid / ask
24¢ / 72¢
Recent buying78% YES · 22% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Order book unavailable.

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2036, as published on the Federal Reserve’s official website, is above 2.75%, then the market resolves to Yes.

If the Federal Reserve specifies a single target rate rather than a target range, that target rate will be used.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 29 · 6:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2037 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 8, 2037 · 6:30 AM UTC
floor
2.75
ticker
KXFEDFUNDSYEAR-37JAN01-T2.75
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in its event.

Recent trades

Over the last 16 trades, 78% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
1d ago75¢4bought yes
1d ago75¢0.3bought yes
1d ago75¢3.7bought yes
21d ago49¢5bought yes
26d ago59¢74bought yes
1mo ago49¢21bought no
1mo ago50¢21bought yes
1mo ago49¢0.3bought no
1mo ago50¢0.1bought yes
1mo ago50¢0.1bought yes
1mo ago50¢0.1bought yes
2mo ago58¢2bought no
2mo ago58¢3bought no
2mo ago59¢2bought no
2mo ago55¢2bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.