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Any free trade agreement ·closes in 28mo

Will Trump make a new free trade agreement with any country before Jan 20, 2029?

YES means Before 2029

24h volume
0
25.3k lifetime
Open interest
8,351
Spread
6¢
500 × 10 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
32%

A YES contract costs 45¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
68%

costs 61¢

YES bid / ask
39¢ / 45¢
NO bid / ask
55¢ / 61¢
Recent buying13% YES · 87% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask89173¢
  • ask1,20364¢
  • ask26463¢
  • ask4662¢
  • ask7461¢
  • ask50047¢
  • ask1546¢
  • ask1045¢
spread6¢mid 42¢
  • bid50039¢
  • bid526¢
  • bid5725¢
  • bid35013¢
  • bid50012¢
  • bid2,1436¢
  • bid1,9994¢
  • bid6,6743¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If a free trade agreement with any country has become law, either through Senate ratification and Presidential approval or through Congressional-Executive Agreement and the signature of the President (or at least, signing the implementing legislation) after Issuance before January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Jan 10, 2025 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 20, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 20, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXFTA-29
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in Will the U.S. enact a free trade agreement?.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 13% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
5d ago32¢19bought no
5d ago33¢15bought no
5d ago33¢5bought no
7d ago40¢5.95bought yes
7d ago35¢5bought yes
7d ago35¢5bought yes
10d ago33¢5bought no
10d ago33¢5bought no
10d ago32¢5.95bought no
11d ago32¢2.25bought no
11d ago33¢5bought no
12d ago34¢7.33bought no
12d ago38¢500bought no
17d ago43¢15bought yes
17d ago42¢0.43bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.