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Georgia parliamentary election·closes in 38mo

Who will win the next Georgian parliamentary election?

YES means Georgian Dream – Democratic Georgia

24h volume
0
9,794 lifetime
Open interest
602
Spread
3¢
96 × 200 at the touch
24h range
–
6 recent trades
Chance of YES
73%

A YES contract costs 74¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
27%

costs 29¢

YES bid / ask
71¢ / 74¢
NO bid / ask
26¢ / 29¢
Recent buying58% YES · 42% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1,000100¢
  • ask199¢
  • ask197¢
  • ask1,00096¢
  • ask30796¢
  • ask396¢
  • ask296¢
  • ask20074¢
spread3¢mid 73¢
  • bid9671¢
  • bid1367¢
  • bid20064¢
  • bid31134¢
  • bid43833¢
  • bid10511¢
  • bid484¢
  • bid334¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the winner of the next Georgian parliamentary election is Georgian Dream – Democratic Georgia, then the market resolves to Yes.

For parliamentary/legislative elections, the winner is the party, coalition, or alliance winning the most seats in the specified chamber. If two parties have the same number of seats, the one entering government will resolve to Yes and all others to No; if both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to Yes and all others to No. This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 16, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Oct 31, 2029 · 2:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Oct 31, 2028 · 2:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXGEORGIAPARLI-28-GD
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 82¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 6 trades, 58% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
11d ago73¢6.72bought yes
14d ago68¢16bought no
14d ago73¢0.01bought yes
14d ago73¢16bought yes
17d ago71¢0.67bought no
19d ago73¢0.67bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.