galdor.xyz
Admin
* Next German federal election winner·closes in 43mo

Will CDU/CSU win the next election to the German Bundestag?

YES means CDU/CSU

24h volume
0
1,123 lifetime
Open interest
481
+5 over 7d
Spread
6¢
495 × 500 at the touch
24h range
–
30 recent trades
Chance of YES
15%

A YES contract costs 15¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
85%

costs 91¢

YES bid / ask
9¢ / 15¢
NO bid / ask
85¢ / 91¢
Recent buying73% YES · 27% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
10¢20¢30¢40¢50¢volSep 14Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask5099¢
  • ask1,04869¢
  • ask35968¢
  • ask5948¢
  • ask50015¢
spread6¢mid 12¢
  • bid4959¢
  • bid5007¢
  • bid1344¢
  • bid501¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If CDU/CSU wins the next election to the German Bundestag, then the market resolves to Yes.

For parliamentary/legislative elections, the winner is the party, coalition, or alliance winning the most seats in the specified chamber. If two parties have the same number of seats, the one entering government will resolve to Yes and all others to No; if both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to Yes and all others to No. For purposes of this market, the seats won by the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Christian Social Union (CSU) will be combined and treated as a single CDU/CSU option This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 28 · 4:23 PM UTC
closes
Mar 25, 2030 · 2:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Mar 25, 2030 · 2:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXGERELECTION-29MAR25-UNI
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 109¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 30 trades, 73% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
1d ago15¢58bought yes
1d ago15¢5bought yes
7d ago15¢50bought yes
9d ago9¢9.82bought no
14d ago16¢118bought yes
15d ago16¢59bought yes
15d ago15¢1.88bought yes
17d ago15¢31bought yes
18d ago29¢17bought no
18d ago29¢182bought no
18d ago31¢5bought no
18d ago31¢80bought no
28d ago36¢5bought yes
28d ago37¢0.28bought yes
1mo ago37¢13bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.