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Government budget cuts·closes in 6mo

Will government spending decrease by 50 before 2026?

YES means At least 50 billion

24h volume
0
23.9k lifetime
Open interest
10.1k
+69 over 7d
Spread
2¢
200 × 283 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
6%

A YES contract costs 6¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
94%

costs 96¢

YES bid / ask
4¢ / 6¢
NO bid / ask
94¢ / 96¢
Recent buying12% YES · 88% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask20013¢
  • ask97711¢
  • ask46310¢
  • ask258¢
  • ask257¢
  • ask4007¢
  • ask1,0006¢
  • ask2836¢
spread2¢mid 5¢
  • bid2004¢
  • bid1402¢
  • bid2002¢
  • bid1942¢
  • bid1,0000¢
  • bid20.0k0¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If government spending (FGEXPND) is at least $50 billion below the Q4 2024 level in any quarter through Q4 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Each quarter from Q1 2025 to Q4 2026 is compared against Q4 2024.

Settlement sources
opened
Apr 6 · 9:30 PM UTC
closes
Mar 31, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Mar 31, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor
50
ticker
KXGOVTCUTS-26-BILLIONB
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 12% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2d ago6¢13bought yes
5d ago5¢31bought no
5d ago6¢22bought yes
5d ago6¢200bought yes
6d ago2¢36bought no
6d ago6¢47bought yes
9d ago5¢28bought no
10d ago6¢60bought yes
10d ago6¢47bought yes
10d ago6¢4bought yes
11d ago5¢3bought yes
12d ago1¢1bought no
12d ago5¢1bought yes
12d ago6¢3bought yes
13d ago6¢3bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.