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Government budget cuts·closes in 31mo

Will government spending decrease by 1 before 2028?

YES means At least $1 billion

24h volume
0
2,553 lifetime
Open interest
1,847
+10 over 7d
Spread
9¢
205 × 200 at the touch
24h range
–
43 recent trades
Chance of YES
15%

A YES contract costs 15¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
85%

costs 94¢

YES bid / ask
6¢ / 15¢
NO bid / ask
85¢ / 94¢
Recent buying86% YES · 14% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢25¢50¢volSep 14Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask5099¢
  • ask17198¢
  • ask11997¢
  • ask50067¢
  • ask32858¢
  • ask20015¢
spread9¢mid 11¢
  • bid2056¢
  • bid392¢
  • bid571¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If government spending (FGEXPND) is at least $1 billion below the Q4 2024 level in any quarter through Q4 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Each quarter from Q1 2025 to Q4 2028 is compared against Q4 2024.

Settlement sources
opened
Aug 14 · 2:30 PM UTC
closes
Mar 31, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Mar 31, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor
1
ticker
KXGOVTCUTS-28-1
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 43 trades, 86% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
1d ago15¢5bought yes
1d ago15¢5bought yes
3d ago3¢1bought no
7d ago9¢33bought yes
7d ago6¢1bought no
7d ago7¢1bought no
7d ago8¢1bought no
7d ago9¢1bought no
7d ago5¢167bought no
9d ago11¢36bought yes
9d ago3¢20bought no
11d ago13¢2bought yes
13d ago12¢2.66bought yes
14d ago10¢1,000bought yes
14d ago80¢3.32bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.