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Insurrection·closes in 28mo

Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act during his Presidency?

YES means Before Jan 20, 2029

24h volume
48
221.1k lifetime
Open interest
49.4k
+136 over 7d
Spread
9¢
22 × 5 at the touch
24h range
41¢ – 42¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
42%+1

A YES contract costs 51¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
58%

costs 58¢

YES bid / ask
42¢ / 51¢
NO bid / ask
49¢ / 58¢
24h low 41¢24h high 42¢
Recent buying23% YES · 77% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
40¢50¢60¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask10074¢
  • ask2973¢
  • ask772¢
  • ask1571¢
  • ask1758¢
  • ask0.656¢
  • ask152¢
  • ask551¢
spread9¢mid 47¢
  • bid2242¢
  • bid4941¢
  • bid54840¢
  • bid2039¢
  • bid14936¢
  • bid1,00035¢
  • bid1,54030¢
  • bid20026¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the President of the United States has invoked the Insurrection Act to deploy the United States military and/or the federalized National Guard within the United States before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Mar 22, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 20, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 20, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXINSURRECTION-29
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 23% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2h ago42¢2.28bought no
4h ago42¢5bought no
4h ago42¢9bought no
4h ago42¢1bought no
4h ago42¢15bought no
4h ago42¢5bought no
4h ago42¢5bought no
8h ago41¢3.52bought no
10h ago42¢2.28bought yes
1d ago41¢10bought no
3d ago41¢10bought no
3d ago41¢20bought no
3d ago41¢10bought no
3d ago40¢15bought no
3d ago40¢10bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.