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S&P 500 yearly range·closes in 3mo

Will the S&P 500 be above 9000 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?

YES means 9,000.01 or above

24h volume
0
262.0k lifetime
Open interest
170.1k
Spread
1¢
987 × 7,862 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
2%

A YES contract costs 2¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
98%

costs 99¢

YES bid / ask
1¢ / 2¢
NO bid / ask
98¢ / 99¢
Recent buying94% YES · 6% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask25210¢
  • ask3608¢
  • ask5,0117¢
  • ask2,0146¢
  • ask1,4575¢
  • ask4,4024¢
  • ask3,3113¢
  • ask7,8622¢
spread1¢mid 2¢
  • bid9871¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the S&P 500 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is above 9000, then the market resolves to Yes.

The market will close on December 31, 2026. The market will expire at the sooner of the first release of the data, or one week after December 31, 2026. Pursuant to the Kalshi Rulebook, the Exchange has modified the Source Agency and Underlying for indices markets. See the rules for more information.

Settlement sources
opened
Dec 23, 2025 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Dec 31 · 9:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Dec 31 · 9:00 PM UTC
floor
9000
ticker
KXINXY-26DEC31H1600-T9000
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 107¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 94% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2d ago2¢1,613bought yes
3d ago2¢468bought yes
3d ago2¢20bought yes
3d ago1¢20bought no
4d ago2¢468bought yes
4d ago2¢248bought no
5d ago2¢2bought no
6d ago2¢0.54bought no
7d ago2¢300bought no
8d ago2¢0.79bought no
8d ago2¢0.96bought no
8d ago2¢192bought no
9d ago3¢312bought yes
11d ago3¢312bought yes
11d ago3¢15bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.