Which parties will win a seat in the Israeli legislative election?·closes in 13mo

Will Religious Zionist Party win at least 1 seat in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

YES means Religious Zionist Party

24h volume
0
1,764 lifetime
Open interest
1,002
+0 over 7d
Spread
1,202 × 200 at the touch
24h range
15 recent trades
Chance of YES
3%

A YES contract costs 10¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
97%

costs 99¢

YES bid / ask
/ 10¢
NO bid / ask
90¢ / 99¢
Recent buying32% YES · 68% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

0¢25¢50¢volSep 14Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask63485¢
  • ask40084¢
  • ask19560¢
  • ask26252¢
  • ask32651¢
  • ask20010¢
spreadmid
  • bid1,202
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Religious Zionist Party has won at least 1 seat in the 2026 Israeli legislative election, then the market resolves to Yes.

A seat is considered "won" when a candidate affiliated with the specified party has been declared elected by the relevant electoral authority and either: The time for legal challenges has expired Challenges have been resolved The member has taken their seat Party affiliation is determined by the party under whose banner the candidate was elected, regardless of subsequent changes. The count is determined when the new legislature takes their seats, even if some seats remain vacant or challenged. If the election is postponed beyond one year from the original date or cancelled entirely, the market resolves to the last fair market price. Only seats actually contested and filled are counted in partial elections. By-elections after the main election are included only if seated simultaneously with the rest of the legislature. Joint candidate lists count as single entities; their seats are not credited separately to constituent parties. A newly formed joint or merged list is a separate entity. A name change alone does not change a list's identity. A politician elected on another list does not count for their former party or list. Surplus-vote agreements and post-election coalitions do not combine seat outcomes. A seat won by an unlisted list does not resolve any listed market Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Aug 28 · 10:00 PM UTC
closes
Oct 27, 2027 · 2:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Nov 11 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXISRAELANYSEAT-26OCT27-RZP
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 15 trades, 32% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
12d ago5bought no
12d ago67bought yes
12d ago12bought yes
12d ago2bought yes
13d ago2bought no
13d ago200bought no
13d ago11¢77bought yes
17d ago56¢200bought no
17d ago61¢200bought no
18d ago71¢200bought no
18d ago41¢200bought no
18d ago76¢200bought no
20d ago75¢200bought yes
22d ago81¢100bought yes
22d ago75¢100bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.