Which parties will win a seat in the Israeli legislative election?·closes in 13mo

Will Zionist Home–The Reservists win at least 1 seat in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

YES means Zionist Home–The Reservists

24h volume
200
3,788 lifetime
Open interest
3,315
+600 over 7d
Spread
139 × 5 at the touch
24h range
6¢ – 6¢
26 recent trades
Chance of YES
6%1

A YES contract costs and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
94%

costs 98¢

YES bid / ask
/
NO bid / ask
94¢ / 98¢
24h low 24h high
Recent buying5% YES · 95% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

0¢5¢10¢15¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask37457¢
  • ask66546¢
  • ask50045¢
  • ask20010¢
  • ask200
  • ask118
  • ask2
  • ask5
spreadmid
  • bid139
  • bid200
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Zionist Home–The Reservists has won at least 1 seat in the 2026 Israeli legislative election, then the market resolves to Yes.

A seat is considered "won" when a candidate affiliated with the specified party has been declared elected by the relevant electoral authority and either: The time for legal challenges has expired Challenges have been resolved The member has taken their seat Party affiliation is determined by the party under whose banner the candidate was elected, regardless of subsequent changes. The count is determined when the new legislature takes their seats, even if some seats remain vacant or challenged. If the election is postponed beyond one year from the original date or cancelled entirely, the market resolves to the last fair market price. Only seats actually contested and filled are counted in partial elections. By-elections after the main election are included only if seated simultaneously with the rest of the legislature. Joint candidate lists count as single entities; their seats are not credited separately to constituent parties. A newly formed joint or merged list is a separate entity. A name change alone does not change a list's identity. A politician elected on another list does not count for their former party or list. Surplus-vote agreements and post-election coalitions do not combine seat outcomes. A seat won by an unlisted list does not resolve any listed market Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Aug 28 · 10:00 PM UTC
closes
Oct 27, 2027 · 2:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Nov 11 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXISRAELANYSEAT-26OCT27-ZHOME
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 26 trades, 5% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
5h ago200bought no
1d ago200bought no
6d ago200bought no
8d ago52bought no
9d ago192bought no
9d ago25bought no
9d ago855bought no
9d ago152bought no
9d ago24bought no
9d ago100bought no
9d ago14¢118bought no
9d ago21¢5bought no
9d ago20¢200bought no
10d ago22¢200bought no
10d ago28¢200bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.