Will it be reported by The Times of Israel that Naftali Bennett is the first Minister of Defense to take office in the first new Israeli government formed after the next Knesset election before Oct 28, 2030?
YES means Naftali Bennett
- 24h volume
- 0
- 414 lifetime
- Open interest
- 414
- +0 over 7d
- Spread
- 10¢
- 200 × 200 at the touch
- 24h range
- –
- 4 recent trades
A YES contract costs 21¢ and pays $1 if it happens.
costs 89¢
An independent read of this market
Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.
Price history
YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.
Order book
Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.
- ask10099¢
- ask35674¢
- ask24273¢
- ask20021¢
- bid20011¢
- bid3222¢
- bid1521¢
How this market resolves
Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.
If it is reported by The Times of Israel after Issuance and before Oct 28, 2030 that Naftali Bennett is the first Minister of Defense to take office in the first new Israeli government formed after the next Knesset election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Only reporting from The Times of Israel qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity. This market concerns the first Minister of Defense to take office in the first new Israeli government formed after the next Knesset election, including a government formed after repeat elections. A new government is formed when the Knesset expresses confidence in it. A retained incumbent counts if appointed in that new government; continuation in the outgoing government does not. Minister of Defense means the holder of the Defense portfolio, including a Prime Minister who also formally holds it. An acting substitute, deputy minister, additional minister within the Defense Ministry, or Minister of National Security does not count. If the portfolio is initially vacant, the first person subsequently appointed to it in that government counts. Nominations, coalition agreements, intended appointments, and hypothetical scenarios do not qualify as taking office. Later replacements do not change the first officeholder.
- opened
- Aug 28 · 10:00 PM UTC
- closes
- Oct 28, 2030 · 3:59 AM UTC · may close early
- settles by
- Nov 4, 2030 · 3:00 PM UTC
- ticker
- KXISRDEFMIN-30-NBEN
Other outcomes in this event
Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 149¢).
Recent trades
Over the last 4 trades, 100% of contracts were bought on the YES side.
| When | YES | Contracts | Side |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10d ago | 78¢ | 4.05 | bought yes |
| 10d ago | 15¢ | 200 | bought yes |
| 10d ago | 89¢ | 9.74 | bought yes |
| 10d ago | 10¢ | 200 | bought yes |
Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.