D.C. Circuit rules on Trump's law firm executive orders·closes in 16mo

Will the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit rule affirms in its entirety the district court's May 2, 2025 final judgment holding Executive Order 14230 unconstitutional and permanently enjoining it?

YES means Before 2028

24h volume
0
210 lifetime
Open interest
210
+0 over 7d
Spread
5 × 10 at the touch
24h range
3 recent trades
Chance of YES
66%

A YES contract costs 74¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
34%

costs 34¢

YES bid / ask
66¢ / 74¢
NO bid / ask
26¢ / 34¢
Recent buying0% YES · 100% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

0¢25¢50¢75¢100¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask5099¢
  • ask5298¢
  • ask6697¢
  • ask196¢
  • ask6394¢
  • ask4493¢
  • ask20075¢
  • ask1074¢
spreadmid 70¢
  • bid566¢
  • bid20065¢
  • bid38
  • bid51
  • bid50
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit affirms in its entirety the district court's May 2, 2025 final judgment holding Executive Order 14230 unconstitutional and permanently enjoining it in Perkins Coie LLP v. U.S. Department of Justice, No. 25-5241 (D.C. Cir.) before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

A qualifying ruling must be a written order, opinion, judgment or decision of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit disposing of appeal No. 25-5241, the government's appeal of the Perkins Coie judgment. The appeals consolidated with it, Nos. 25-5265 (Jenner & Block), 25-5277 (WilmerHale) and 25-5310 (Susman Godfrey), count only where the same disposition also disposes of No. 25-5241. "In its entirety" means the court affirms the judgment and reverses, vacates or remands no part of it. These resolve to NO: A disposition affirming in part and reversing, vacating or remanding in part, however small the part Reversal or vacatur of the whole judgment Dismissal of the appeal, including voluntary dismissal by the government and disposal on mootness grounds A qualifying ruling settles the market when issued; a later grant of rehearing, rehearing en banc or Supreme Court review does NOT unwind it. A change in the appellee's name or corporate form, including its June 29, 2026 combination into Ashurst Perkins Coie, does NOT affect settlement.

opened
Aug 20 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2028 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXLAWFIRMEO-PERKINS28
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in Will the D.C. Circuit fully affirm the Perkins Coie ruling?.

Recent trades

Over the last 3 trades, 0% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
19d ago66¢200bought no
27d ago67¢5bought no
29d ago67¢5bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.